An increase in sea surface temperature is strongly evident at all latitudes and in all oceans. The scientific evidence to date indicates that increased sea surface temperature will intensify cyclone activity and heighten storm surges. These surges will, in turn, create more damaging flood conditions in coastal zones and adjoining low-lying areas. The destructive impact will generally be greater when storm surges are accompanied by strong winds and large onshore waves.
In this research, we have considered the potential impact of a large (1-in-100-year) storm surge by contemporary standards, and then compared it with its 10% intensification which is expected to occur in this century. In modeling the future climate, we took account of changes in sea level rise, geological uplift and subsidence along the world’s coastlines. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially-disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (Area, population, economic activity (GDP), agricultural land, urban areas, and wetlands), with the inundation zones projected for coastal developing countries.
This research was carried out by the World Bank in 2008-2009. This dataset is for cyclone-prone World Bank client countries only.