Name: Emerging Markets Borrow Short Term
Creator: World Bank Group

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The authors argue that emerging economies borrow short term due to the high risk premium charged by international capital markets on long-term debt.  They first present a model where the debt maturity structure is the outcome of a risk-sharing problem between the government and bondholders. By issuing long-term debt, the government lowers the probability of a liquidity crisis, transferring risk to bondholders. In equilibrium, this risk is reflected in a higher risk premium and borrowing cost. Therefore, the government faces a tradeoff between safer long-term borrowing and cheaper short-term debt. Second, the authors construct a new database of sovereign bond prices and issuance. They show that emerging economies pay a positive term premium (a higher risk premium on long-term bonds than on short-term bonds). During crises, the term premium increases, with issuance shifting toward shorter maturities. This suggests that changes in bondholders' risk aversion are important to understand emerging market crises.

Working paper

The authors argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaper than borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as during these episodes the relative cost of long-term borrowing increases.

They have constructed a unique database of sovereign bond prices, returns, and issuances at different maturities for 11 emerging economies from 1990 to 2009 and present a set of new stylized facts. On average, these countries pay a higher risk premium on long-term than on short-term bonds. During crises, the difference between the two risk premia increases and issuance shifts towards shorter maturities.

To illustrate the argument, the authors present a simple model in which the maturity structure is the outcome of a risk-sharing problem between an emerging economy subject to rollover crises and risk-averse international investors.


Dataset

World

The authors argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaper than borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as during these episodes the relative cost of long-term borrowing increases. They have constructed a unique database of sovereign bond prices, returns, and issuances at different maturities for 11 emerging economies from 1990 to 2009 and present a set of new stylized facts. On average, these countries pay a higher risk premium on long-term than on short-term bonds. During crises, the difference between the two risk premia increases and issuance shifts towards shorter maturities.

Emerging Markets Borrow Short Term

Metadata